1. 19% of U.S. workers are in jobs ‘most exposed’ to AI

According to Pew Research Center (2023), about 19% of American workers are employed in jobs where the most important activities might be replaced or significantly assisted by AI. Workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher were more likely (27%) to be in these ‘most exposed’ jobs compared with workers whose highest education was a high-school diploma (12%). The average hourly pay for workers in highly exposed jobs was $33 versus $20 for those least exposed.

Source: Pew Research Center (2023). ‘Which U.S. workers are more exposed to AI on their jobs?’ https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/07/26/which-u-s-workers-are-more-exposed-to-ai-on-their-jobs/

2. 60% of jobs in advanced economies may be impacted by AI

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that about 60% of jobs in advanced economies may be impacted by AI. Roughly half of the exposed jobs could benefit from AI integration, while the other half may see reduced labour demand.

Source: IMF (2024). ‘AI Will Transform the Global Economy—Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.’ https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity

3. 35 million U.S. jobs significantly exposed to automation and AI

A report from Goldman Sachs and the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute (AIPI) finds that more than 35 million U.S. jobs are highly exposed to automation. Office and administrative support jobs (46%), legal work (44%), business and financial operations (35%), and sales roles (31%) are particularly affected.

Source: Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute / Goldman Sachs (2023). https://theaipi.org/ai-interactive-map/

4. 30% of the workforce could see half or more of tasks impacted by Generative AI

Research cited by the Brookings Institution and Time Magazine suggests that approximately 30% of the workforce could see at least half of their tasks impacted by Generative AI, while over 85% may see at least 10% of tasks affected.

Source: Time Magazine (2024). ‘AI and the Future of Non-Union Jobs.’ https://time.com/7081228/ai-non-union-job-essay/

5. 12.6% of U.S. jobs face ‘high or very high’ risk of near-term automation

A 2024 report by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) found that approximately 12.6% of U.S. jobs—around 19 million workers—are at high or very high risk of automation displacement in the near term. The level of risk varies significantly by industry and task composition.

Source: SHRM (2024). ‘Jobs at Risk: Automation and the Workforce.’ https://www.shrm.org/content/dam/en/shrm/topics-tools/research/jobs-at-risk-brief.pdf

6. 47% of U.S. jobs were at risk of computerisation by 2030 (historic estimate)

The influential 2013 study by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne estimated that 47% of U.S. employment was at risk of computerisation between 2010 and 2030. This provides important historical context for current AI-related job risk estimates.

Source: Frey, C. B. & Osborne, M. A. (2013). ‘The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’ Oxford Martin School. https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf

7. 80% of U.S. workforce may have at least 10% of tasks affected by LLMs

The study ‘GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models’ by Eloundou et al. (2023) found that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their tasks affected by large language models (LLMs), and 19% could have at least 50% of their tasks impacted.

Source: Eloundou, T., Manning, S., Mishkin, P., & Rock, D. (2023). ‘GPTs are GPTs.’ arXiv:2303.10130. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130